The UK’s Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has released its latest annual update to the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2024. The CMI Model is used by UK pension schemes and insurance companies which need to make assumptions about future mortality rates.
CMI_2024 produces cohort life expectancies at age 65 that are about three months higher for males and about two weeks higher for females than in the previous version of the CMI model, CMI_2023.
The CMI has made significant changes to the method for CMI_2024, now that the short- to-medium term impact of the pandemic on mortality is better understood. This follows consultation with users, who were largely supportive of the proposals.
Versions of the CMI Model from CMI_2020 to CMI_2023 addressed the impact of the pandemic by placing no weight on data for 2020 or 2021 and reduced weight on data for 2022 and 2023. In contrast, CMI_2024 puts full weight on data for every year and introduces a new “overlay” term to explicitly model the initial increase in mortality caused by the pandemic as well as the fall in the following years.
Standardised mortality rates in England and Wales have fallen each year since 2020. All-age mortality in 2024 was the lowest on record, but still higher than what the CMI Model projected before the pandemic. Mortality to date in 2025 has also been relatively low, and comparable to the corresponding period in 2024.
Mortality trends have varied significantly by age. Although mortality in 2024 reached record lows at pensioner ages, mortality for younger working ages remained above the 2014-2023 average. CMI_2024 reflects this by allowing trends to differ by age more than in previous versions, and this drives the increase in life expectancies at pensioner ages, particularly for males.
“We were pleased that responses to the consultation on CMI_2024 showed broad support for our proposal. The key changes made allow better modelling of mortality as we emerge from the pandemic and should provide a sound foundation for future years,” said Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee.
“While recent mortality has been close to record lows, the outlook for mortality remains uncertain. We encourage users of our model to consider adjusting the model’s parameters to reflect their own portfolios and views on the impact of the pandemic.”
