The 2015 Paris Agreement targeted a long-term goal to keep the rise in global surface temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels – but early signs are of progress on achieving these targets are not great.
Scientists at the EU’s Copernicus climate monitoring service reported at the start of September that the Northern Hemisphere summer was the hottest since records began, beating a record only set in 2023.
Anthropogenic global heating will have a direct impact on life expectancy according to a study published by The Lancet a few days earlier. Part of the publication’s Countdown initiative, which tracks the impact of climate change on health, the study looked at the impact of rising temperatures on mortality in European regions.
The study predicted that a 3°C temperature increase by 2100 would bring an additional 55,000 deaths a year in Europe, but the effects would not be uniform.
“Climate change is also expected to widen disparities in regional mortality, particularly impacting southern regions of Europe as a result of a marked increase in heat-related deaths,” the study reported, which was lead-authored by David García-León, a scientific officer for the European Commission.
Nicky Draper, a longevity consultant at UK data specialists Crystallise, says that the rise in temperature presents a number of risks that could cause an increase in mortality levels.
“It’s getting hotter and hotter each year, that’s coupled with excess precipitation and this combination has multi-factorial impacts. The most obvious of which is flooding, the immediate impacts of which are things such as physical trauma and drowning,” she said.
“Then there is the damage to property, people’s livelihoods, and their ability to work. Afterwards there are lingering effects such as mould and respiratory disease and how that impacts asthma and people with preexisting conditions. That’s just the impact of greater precipitation,” Draper added.
Draper says that despite the multifaceted nature of higher levels of precipitation on mortality, the biggest impact on mortality from climate change will come from rising heat.
There is a relatively narrow range of ambient temperature that allows humans to maintain their optimal core temperature of 37℃. Researchers have shown that even a healthy young person will die after just six hours of 35°C heat if accompanied by 100% humidity (sometimes referred to as a ‘wet bulb’ temperature).
Draper says that if humans are unable to cool down the body will experience catastrophic effects, with older people even more exposed to this risk
“If heat exhaustion sets in, it means dehydration starts, affecting the kidneys which could then fail. But something odd happens to the entire body as the gut starts to leak toxins as a result of blood being diverted to the peripheries which can lead to organ failure,” she says.
“An older person is more likely to succumb to heatstroke because they don’t recognise a change in body temperature the same way that younger people do. And if a person has, say, an existing cardiac condition, an increased body temperature will result in a higher risk of having a heart attack.”
“Heat also exacerbates respiratory conditions partly through the pathway of creating new pollutants in the air. In particular, I’m referring to Ground Level Ozone, which has a direct effect on respiratory health. So, there’s a multitude of things that can happen in heat and in moisture,” she says.
Europe’s relatively high level of urbanisation – 75% versus a global average of 57% – means the region has an increased chance of overheating because cities are warming at twice the pace of average global temperatures, according to a United Nations study published in 2021.
“Excessively hot periods are going to occur more often and for longer in the future and these events are happening in places like Central Europe which haven’t typically experienced them before. Parts of Spain are forecast to be uninhabitable in 20 years’ time.”
“This highlights one of the most important issues around the impact of climate change; those who are most vulnerable are going to be least able to deal with the impact of climate change. People who have the means to move, will. Those who don’t will have to stay,” says Draper.
Rising temperatures in Europe also bring an increasing risk of diseases, with some scientists concerned that malaria could stage a comeback. Malaria was eradicated from the region by the 1970s due to a combination of draining marshes, preventative medication, and the use of insecticides before a small number of cases were recorded in Southern Europe in 2023.
In June the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) reported that the Asian Tiger mosquito was behind the rise in dengue fever and that the insect is now present in 13 European countries – an expansion the health agency explicitly linked to climate change.
In 2022 the European Environment Agency warned that Europe was becoming a ‘hot spot’ for emerging infectious diseases, such as West Nile Virus, chikungunya as well as dengue.
“Mosquitos thrive at a narrow range of ambient humidity and temperature but these conditions are now more widespread in Europe. They also like standing water, and more precipitation equals more puddles of stagnant water where they can lay their eggs and the young can be born.”
“But malaria is just one of many diseases. There’s also West Nile Virus and a number of other vector borne diseases which potentially look like they are going to increase their range of territory,” says Draper.
Current research suggests that that the recent experience of increased temperatures is not an aberration and will worsen over the long term. A February 2024 report by the Swiss Re Institute said that measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions would fall short of the Paris Agreements aim of limiting temperature rises and instead a 2.7°C warming by 2100 was instead likely.
It is not all entirely bad news. Draper says that humans have shown remarkable ability to adapt to changing temperatures in the past with studies showing shifts in the ability to deal with periods of extreme cold that went beyond the level that scientists would have predicted.
“Some recent research suggested that our ability to deal with climate change may be greater than how it is predicted we will deal with it. Humans are incredibly adaptable.”
“I’m not talking about stuff that costs money or being able to move house, but on an individual level the ability to make physiological changes could take place within a generation or two,” she says.
