Overall mortality rates in the first three quarters of 2026 in England and Wales were lower than in the first three quarters of any earlier year for males and females, according to UK group The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI).
Mortality rates in the third quarter of 2026 were lower than in the third quarter of any earlier year, although similar to 2025; they have fallen by 6-10% for all age groups over the last three years, leading to record lows in 2026 for most age groups. However, mortality for young males, which had been rising prior to the pandemic, remains higher than the record low seen in 2012 despite recent improvements.
There were around 54,900 deaths involving influenza or pneumonia registered in the first three quarters of 2026, lower than the range of 62,900 to 67,500 seen in the first three quarters of 2023 to 2025.
There were around 900 deaths recorded in the first three quarters of 2026 as involving COVID-19, compared to 13,600, 7,600 and 3,200 in the first three quarters of 2023, 2024 and 2025.
“Despite increases in deaths seen during the summer heatwaves, mortality across Q3 was at a similarly low level to last year,” said Steve Bale, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee.
“Mortality for the first three quarters of the year is at record low levels in 2026 for most age groups considered in the mortality monitor. The exception is young males, whose mortality is still around 1% higher than was seen in 2012.”
