The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has released the annual update to the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2025. The CMI Model is used by UK pension schemes and insurance companies which need to make assumptions about future mortality rates.
CMI_2025 produces cohort life expectancies at age 65 that are about eight weeks higher for males and about six weeks higher for females than in the previous version of the CMI Model, CMI_2024.
The CMI made significant changes to the method for CMI_2024 but has retained the same method for CMI_2025 apart from calibrating it to more recent mortality data.
The increase in life expectancy between CMI_2024 and CMI_2025 reflects low mortality in 2025.
Standardised mortality rates in England & Wales have fallen each year since 2020. All-age mortality in 2025 was the lowest on record, and 2% below 2024. Mortality to date in 2026 has reached a new low for the time of year.
Mortality trends have varied by age and sex. Although mortality in 2025 reached record lows at pensioner ages, mortality for males aged 45-64 remained above the 2015-2019 average.
“After a turbulent period for mortality during the pandemic, we have seen a return to more normal conditions. A fall in mortality in 2025 has led to a further increase in projected life expectancy,” said Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee.
“But while recent mortality has set new record lows, the outlook for mortality remains uncertain. We encourage users of our model to consider adjusting the model’s parameters to reflect their own portfolios and views on future mortality.”
